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| Dr. Nasib Nasibli |
Azerbaijan's former ambassador to Tehran and historian Nasib Nasibli, in an interview with Voice of America, evaluated the recent tensions in Iran-Azerbaijan relations.
Nasibli stated, "At one time, President Elchibey was accused of damaging Iran-Azerbaijan relations. But later, it became clear that this was not dependent on the leaders of the two states."
"This tension cannot continue at this level indefinitely. However, the issue here is that it is a symptom of systemic contradictions. Over the past 30 years, relations between the two countries have periodically intensified, sometimes cooling down and at other times warming up," the former ambassador noted.
Referring to past tensions in relations between the two countries, he said: "The tension has sometimes increased and sometimes decreased. That’s why we say this does not depend on the leaders of the state and their policies. Whether it was Rouhani, or the current more hardline leader [Ebrahim Raisi], whether it was Elchibey, Heydar Aliyev, or Ilham Aliyev leading Azerbaijan, their impact on the nature of these relations has been minimal. There is a geopolitical knot here, and untying it is very difficult."
The historian criticized the past accusations against former Azerbaijani President Abulfaz Elchibey, who was blamed by some for worsening Iran-Azerbaijan relations:
"At one time, Elchibey was even accused of being responsible for the deterioration of relations between these two countries. That was a mistake. Because later, during the periods of Heydar Aliyev and Ilham Aliyev, relations also deteriorated. We saw that these relations do not depend on individuals."
According to him, "If a large part of Azerbaijan, bearing the same name, were not within the borders of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and if there were no oppressed Turkish nation there, the relations would undoubtedly have developed in a different direction."
Commenting on Iran's concerns over Israel-Azerbaijan relations, Nasibli stated that "Azerbaijan is an independent state and has both the right and the necessity to expand its relations with Israel."
In the interview, Nasibli also assessed Iran’s concerns about the opening of the Zangezur Corridor:
"The Zangezur Corridor is not only a factor that has fragmented the Turkic World, but it also divides Azerbaijan. One of Azerbaijan’s soft spots, one of its major geopolitical issues, is the lack of a land connection with Nakhchivan. The Iranian side knows that, even if it is under Russia’s control, the operation of the Zangezur Corridor will allow Azerbaijan to expand its influence and mobility."
He explained that the corridor’s opening would mean the end of Azerbaijan’s dependence on Iran:
"Until now, the leadership of the Republic of Azerbaijan has always preferred to keep Iran on its side. It has consistently demonstrated that it is not interested in escalating tensions. There was always a warm tone in statements addressed to the Islamic Republic of Iran. However, the operation of the Zangezur Corridor effectively means the elimination of Azerbaijan’s dependency on Iran. Iran is well aware of this."
Nasibli emphasized that the Islamic Republic does not seek political stability in the region:
According to him, "Iran is uneasy about the stable environment that emerged after the Second Karabakh War. Because Iran saw the continued conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia as beneficial to its own state interests, both economically and politically. Now, however, it is concerned about the emergence of a cooperative atmosphere in the region."
The historian pointed out that Iran's harsh official statements are also aimed at internal audiences:
"These excessive statements are made for domestic consumption. This is also meant as a warning to Iranian Turks. Look at the military exercises Iran is conducting along the southern banks of the Araz River, look at the mass arrests taking place. This is a clear expression of Iran’s anxiety over the growing Turkish movement within its borders."
Link to the original interview in Turkish on the Azerbaijani section of Voice of America:
Nəsib Nəsibli: Bir zamanlar Elçibəyi İran-Azərbaycan münasibətlərini pozmaqda ittiham edirdilər