"The Decline in Belief in Shia Islam in Iran is a Result of 40 Years of Clerical Rule"

By Alirza Quluncu, Voice of America, October 1, 2020

Jalal Rovshan

According to a recent survey conducted by the Group for Analyzing and Measuring Attitudes in Iran (GAMAAN), religious beliefs, particularly faith in Shia Islam, have significantly weakened within Iranian society. Speaking to VOA, political analyst Jalal Rovshan argues that this is a natural consequence of 40 years of clerical rule.


Approximately 50,000 Iranians participated in the survey, with 90% of respondents residing inside the country. Among them, only 32% identified as Shia Muslims. In contrast, the official institutions of the Islamic Republic claim that over 90% of the population adheres to Shia Islam.

Rovshan explains, “In a society governed by Sharia law, especially over an extended period, it is natural for people to distance themselves from their religious and sectarian beliefs or to want to move away from the dominance of the ruling sect. Iran is clearly a Sharia-based system. We are talking about a system that has been governed by Islamic Shia Sharia for 40 years.”

He adds, “It is evident to everyone how the country is managed under this system, including the state of people's livelihoods, fundamental rights, and freedoms.”

The political analyst highlights the challenges of conducting online surveys in Iran, emphasizing that GAMAAN has undertaken an important project. He also notes that the survey did not clearly distinguish between personal faith and trust in clerical governance.

“In the study, two important issues have been conflated: one is people's personal and spiritual views on religion and sects, and the other is their perception of religion at the state and governance level. These are different subjects and should not be mixed. A person can be religious and, at the same time, secular. That is, they may not want any religion or sect to interfere in governance,” says an expert from the Caucasus Strategic Research Center.

According to the survey, 68% of respondents opposed forming legislation based on religious decrees, while 15% supported it.

Jalal Rovshan emphasizes that the 68% figure is significant:

“This is a substantial number. Frankly, for me, the most important aspect of this survey is precisely this. When we consider that in 1979, Iranian society said ‘yes’ to the Islamic Republic—with 99% of votes recorded in the March 31, 1979, referendum—this 68% figure, 40 years later, tells us a lot.”

The political analyst further notes, “We also see a close relationship between Shiism and Persian identity, meaning the ideology of Persian nationalism and Aryan racial ideas. These have been intertwined. When they present us with the issue of Aryanism, they simultaneously bring up Shiism.


Link to the original interview in Turkish on the Azerbaijani section of Voice of America:
“İranda şiə məzhəbinə inananların azalması 40 illik şəriət hakimiyyətinin nəticəsidir”